What’s the update on conflict between Ukraine and Russia?

Fighting continues. Russia is not succeeding operationally in any area.

Artillery and missiles continue to be used by both sides. Russia with limited accuracy and achieving only something akin to strategic bombing in the last century. This succeeded only once and that was against Japan in 1945. The will of Ukraine will not be undermined by these efforts. Putin will not order the use of nuclear weapons.

The accurate counter force actions by Ukraine artillery is seeing success against Russian headquarters, logistics storage sites, etc. This is undermining Russian ability to fight. Look out for forced withdrawals from the rest of Kherson Oblast, and Crimea should the Kerch Strait bridge be hit again. Access into northern Crimea is now vulnerable to long range artillery in fact by striking three bridges Crimea could be cut off from support by land, making defence of Crimea by Russia untenable.

The economic situation for Putin continues to worsen by degrees and in a few months will reach a critical point where the choice will be between paying internal security apparatus or fighting the war. At that point Putin risk the breakup of the Russian federation.

Putin will be working his worry beads.

Mohammad Mudasir Chandio

What’s the update on conflict between Ukraine and Russia?

Fighting continues. Russia is not succeeding operationally in any area.

Artillery and missiles continue to be used by both sides. Russia with limited accuracy and achieving only something akin to strategic bombing in the last century. This succeeded only once and that was against Japan in 1945. The will of Ukraine will not be undermined by these efforts. Putin will not order the use of nuclear weapons.

The accurate counter force actions by Ukraine artillery is seeing success against Russian headquarters, logistics storage sites, etc. This is undermining Russian ability to fight. Look out for forced withdrawals from the rest of Kherson Oblast, and Crimea should the Kerch Strait bridge be hit again. Access into northern Crimea is now vulnerable to long range artillery in fact by striking three bridges Crimea could be cut off from support by land, making defence of Crimea by Russia untenable.

The economic situation for Putin continues to worsen by degrees and in a few months will reach a critical point where the choice will be between paying internal security apparatus or fighting the war. At that point Putin risk the breakup of the Russian federation.

Putin will be working his worry beads.

Mohammad Mudasir Chandio

What’s the update on conflict between Ukraine and Russia?

Fighting continues. Russia is not succeeding operationally in any area.

Artillery and missiles continue to be used by both sides. Russia with limited accuracy and achieving only something akin to strategic bombing in the last century. This succeeded only once and that was against Japan in 1945. The will of Ukraine will not be undermined by these efforts. Putin will not order the use of nuclear weapons.

The accurate counter force actions by Ukraine artillery is seeing success against Russian headquarters, logistics storage sites, etc. This is undermining Russian ability to fight. Look out for forced withdrawals from the rest of Kherson Oblast, and Crimea should the Kerch Strait bridge be hit again. Access into northern Crimea is now vulnerable to long range artillery in fact by striking three bridges Crimea could be cut off from support by land, making defence of Crimea by Russia untenable.

The economic situation for Putin continues to worsen by degrees and in a few months will reach a critical point where the choice will be between paying internal security apparatus or fighting the war. At that point Putin risk the breakup of the Russian federation.

Putin will be working his worry beads.

Mohammad Mudasir Chandio

What’s the update on conflict between Ukraine and Russia?

Fighting continues. Russia is not succeeding operationally in any area.

Artillery and missiles continue to be used by both sides. Russia with limited accuracy and achieving only something akin to strategic bombing in the last century. This succeeded only once and that was against Japan in 1945. The will of Ukraine will not be undermined by these efforts. Putin will not order the use of nuclear weapons.

The accurate counter force actions by Ukraine artillery is seeing success against Russian headquarters, logistics storage sites, etc. This is undermining Russian ability to fight. Look out for forced withdrawals from the rest of Kherson Oblast, and Crimea should the Kerch Strait bridge be hit again. Access into northern Crimea is now vulnerable to long range artillery in fact by striking three bridges Crimea could be cut off from support by land, making defence of Crimea by Russia untenable.

The economic situation for Putin continues to worsen by degrees and in a few months will reach a critical point where the choice will be between paying internal security apparatus or fighting the war. At that point Putin risk the breakup of the Russian federation.

Putin will be working his worry beads.

Mohammad Mudasir Chandio

What’s the update on conflict between Ukraine and Russia?

Fighting continues. Russia is not succeeding operationally in any area.

Artillery and missiles continue to be used by both sides. Russia with limited accuracy and achieving only something akin to strategic bombing in the last century. This succeeded only once and that was against Japan in 1945. The will of Ukraine will not be undermined by these efforts. Putin will not order the use of nuclear weapons.

The accurate counter force actions by Ukraine artillery is seeing success against Russian headquarters, logistics storage sites, etc. This is undermining Russian ability to fight. Look out for forced withdrawals from the rest of Kherson Oblast, and Crimea should the Kerch Strait bridge be hit again. Access into northern Crimea is now vulnerable to long range artillery in fact by striking three bridges Crimea could be cut off from support by land, making defence of Crimea by Russia untenable.

The economic situation for Putin continues to worsen by degrees and in a few months will reach a critical point where the choice will be between paying internal security apparatus or fighting the war. At that point Putin risk the breakup of the Russian federation.

Putin will be working his worry beads.

Mohammad Mudasir Chandio

What’s the update on conflict between Ukraine and Russia?

Fighting continues. Russia is not succeeding operationally in any area.

Artillery and missiles continue to be used by both sides. Russia with limited accuracy and achieving only something akin to strategic bombing in the last century. This succeeded only once and that was against Japan in 1945. The will of Ukraine will not be undermined by these efforts. Putin will not order the use of nuclear weapons.

The accurate counter force actions by Ukraine artillery is seeing success against Russian headquarters, logistics storage sites, etc. This is undermining Russian ability to fight. Look out for forced withdrawals from the rest of Kherson Oblast, and Crimea should the Kerch Strait bridge be hit again. Access into northern Crimea is now vulnerable to long range artillery in fact by striking three bridges Crimea could be cut off from support by land, making defence of Crimea by Russia untenable.

The economic situation for Putin continues to worsen by degrees and in a few months will reach a critical point where the choice will be between paying internal security apparatus or fighting the war. At that point Putin risk the breakup of the Russian federation.

Putin will be working his worry beads.

Mohammad Mudasir Chandio

What’s the update on conflict between Ukraine and Russia?

Fighting continues. Russia is not succeeding operationally in any area.

Artillery and missiles continue to be used by both sides. Russia with limited accuracy and achieving only something akin to strategic bombing in the last century. This succeeded only once and that was against Japan in 1945. The will of Ukraine will not be undermined by these efforts. Putin will not order the use of nuclear weapons.

The accurate counter force actions by Ukraine artillery is seeing success against Russian headquarters, logistics storage sites, etc. This is undermining Russian ability to fight. Look out for forced withdrawals from the rest of Kherson Oblast, and Crimea should the Kerch Strait bridge be hit again. Access into northern Crimea is now vulnerable to long range artillery in fact by striking three bridges Crimea could be cut off from support by land, making defence of Crimea by Russia untenable.

The economic situation for Putin continues to worsen by degrees and in a few months will reach a critical point where the choice will be between paying internal security apparatus or fighting the war. At that point Putin risk the breakup of the Russian federation.

Putin will be working his worry beads.

Mohammad Mudasir Chandio

How would you define war?

A state of beligerance between two nations, or a metaphor for a concerted effort to fight a national threat.

We can talk about war between nations. War between city-states. War between Homo Erectus (humans) and Neanderthals. All of these involve arms and more than one person fighting.

We can also use it as a metaphor, as in the War on Drugs. Or a war on truth. Or a war on the dollar. These lack the usual parts that Von Klauswitz made in his observation that war is diplomacy by other means.

To get a conventional war to end, diplomacy must resume. And war becomes a possibility when diplomacy breaks down.

But if you want to mobilize America to fight drugs, you call it a war on drugs. It allows you to use Navy and Air Force resources to interdict drug transportation. It is not a real war because you cannot negotiate with drug dealers. Some would also say the war on terror is similar.

MBC Mudasir Bedar Chandio the writer and researcher.